A FUZZY BASED EXPERT SYSTEM FOR INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING IN ORGANIZATION-1
CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction
An assetor item that is purchased with the hope that it will generate income or appreciate in the future. In an economic sense, an investment is the purchase of goods that are not consumed today but are used in the future to create wealth. In finance, an investment is a monetary asset purchased with the idea that the asset will provide income in the future or appreciate and be sold at a higher price.In the financial sense investments include the purchase of bonds, stocks or real estate property.
Be sure not to get ‘making an investment’ and ‘speculating’ confused. Investing usually involves the creation of wealth whereas speculating is often a zero-sum game; wealth is not created. Although speculators are often making informed decisions, speculation cannot usually be categorized as traditional investing.
The act of committing money or capital to an endeavor with the expectation of obtaining an additional income or profit. It’s actually pretty simple: investing means putting your money to work for you. Essentially, it’s a different way to think about how to make money. Growing up, most of us were taught that you can earn an income only by getting a job and working. And that’s exactly what most of us do. There’s one big problem with this: if you want more money, you have to work more hours. However, there is a limit to how many hours a day we can work, not to mention the fact that having a bunch of money is no fun if we don’t have the leisure time to enjoy it .You can’t create a duplicate of yourself to increase your working time, so instead, you need to send an extension of yourself – your money – to work. That way, while you are putting in hours for your employer, or even mowing your lawn, sleeping, reading the paper or socializing with friends, you can also be earning money elsewhere. Quite simply, making your money work for you maximizes your earning potential whether or not you receive a raise, decide to work overtime or look for a higher-paying job.
There are many different ways you can go about making an investment. This includes putting money into stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or real estate (among many other things), or starting your own business. Sometimes people refer to these options as “investment vehicles,” which is just another way of saying “a way to invest.” Each of these vehicles has positives and negatives, the point is that it doesn’t matter which method you choose for investing your money, the goal is always to put your money to work so it earns you an additional profit. Even though this is a simple idea, it’s the most important concept for you to understand.

True investing doesn’t happen without some action on your part. A “real” investor does not simply throw his or her money at any random investment; he or she performs thorough analysis and commits capital only when there is a reasonable expectation of profit. Yes, there still is risk, and there are no guarantees, but investing is more than simply hoping.Obviously everybody wants more money. It’s pretty easy to understand that people invest because they want to increase their personal freedom, sense of security and ability to afford the things they want in life.

However, investing is becoming more of a necessity. The days when everyone worked the same job for 30 years and then retired to a nice fat pension are gone. For average people, investing is not so much a helpful tool as the only way they can retire and maintain their present lifestyle.

Whether you live in the U.S., Nigeria, or pretty much any other country in the industrialized Western world, governments are tightening their belts. Almost without exception, the responsibility of planning for retirement is shifting away from the state and towards the individual. There is much debate over how safe our old-age pension programs will be over the next 20, 30 and 50 years. But why leave it to chance? By planning ahead you can ensure financial stability during your retirement.
Investment is the commitment of money or capital to purchase financial instruments or other assets in order to gain profitable returns in the form of interest, income, or appreciation of the value of the instrument. Investment is related to saving or deferring consumption.
An investment involves the choice by an individual or an organization such as a pension fund, after some analysis or thought, to place or lend money in a vehicle, instrument or asset, such as property, commodity, stock, bond, financial derivatives (e.g. futures or options), or the foreign asset denominated in foreign currency, that has certain level of riskand provides the possibility the futureof generating returns over a period of time.
When an asset is bought or a given amount of money is invested in the bank, there is anticipation that some return will be received from the investment in
Investment should be prioritized in order of importance so that decision makers can effectively evaluate these requests. Government officials can use various methods and combinations of techniques to help with this process. For example, it may be helpful to create a prioritization scale (high, medium, low) based on broad categories of need. Rankings should be justified by empirical data where possible (e.g. .engineering studies, cost/benefit analyses, surveys). If a capital plan consists of a large volume of projects, it may be helpful to group projects into clusters of activity so that local government officials can effectively prioritize them.
There are lots of difficulties that face investment which are future uncertainties, risk,time element, difficult in quantification of impact among others. All these affect the realization of capital budget. In solving these problems a tool called fuzzy logic is adopted in solving the problem. Fuzzy logic is a reputable tool that eliminates uncertainties and information risks.
Fuzzy logic was initiated in 1965 by Lofti A Zadeh, professor in computer science at the university of California in Berkeley . Since then fuzzy logic has emerged as a powerful techniques for controlling industrial processes, household and entertainment electronics, diagnosis systems and other expert system (capital budget inclusive). Rapid growth of the technology has actually started from Japan and then spread to the USA and Europe. The motivation for fuzzy logic was expressed by Zadeh (1984).

1.1.1 Expert System
Expert system is a computer system that emulates the decision-making ability of a human expert systems are designed to solve complex problems by reasoning about knowledge, represented primarily as if–then rules rather than through conventional procedural code
The first expert systems were created in the 1970s and then proliferated in the 1980s. Expert systems were among the first truly successful forms of AI software.
An expert system is divided into two sub-systems: the inference engine and the knowledge base. The knowledge base represents facts and rules. The inference engine applies the rules to the known facts to deduce new facts. Inference engines can also include explanation and debugging capabilities.
Every expert system consists of two principal parts: the knowledge base; and the reasoning, or inference engine. The knowledge base of expert systems contains both factual and heuristic knowledge. Factual knowledge is that knowledge of the task domain that is widely shared, typically found in textbooks or journals, and commonly agreed upon by those knowledgeable in the particular field. Heuristic knowledge is the less rigorous, more experiential, more judgmental knowledge of performance. In contrast to factual knowledge, heuristic knowledge is rarely discussed, and is largely individualistic.
1.2 Statementof Problem
Investment decision making faces a lot of uncertainties and risks. In investment decision making, investor apply manual and heuristic approach to alienate the uncertainties and risks, which often time are unproductive.
In view of the foregoing, it would be of great necessity to avoid the uncertainties and risks facing investment decision making using a computational approach that is sensitive to uncertainties risk and impression. Therefore, this work applies fuzzy logic to budget investment decision making information.

1.3 Aim and Objectives
1.3.1 Aim
The aim of this research work is to develop a fuzzy-based expert system for budget investment decision making in organization.

1.3.2 Objectives
a. To Model a fuzzy inference system for budget investment decision making
b. To Design an expert system for budget investment decision making
c. To Implement an expert system for budget investment decision making

1.4 Significant Of Study
This system will improve the realization of investment decision making than the manual and heuristic approach it also:
a. Help individuals to make decision on budget investment efficiently
b. It restores precision and credibility of budgetinvestment
c. Reduces time wasting in budget investment decision making
d. Help to monitor and control budgetinvestment
e. It helps to take decision in budget investment

1.5 Scope of Study
This project work will be based on budget investment decision making in organization.
The fuzzy system will be implemented using MATLAB.

2 thoughts on “A FUZZY BASED EXPERT SYSTEM FOR INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING IN ORGANIZATION”
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